关于股票投资的一些知识

 1.股票是什么？一家公司可以把其资本的构成分成若干份，一份就是一股。假如你持有一家公司的一股，你就是这家公司的股东。比如，当你持有比亚迪的一股，你就是比亚迪公司的股东了。比亚迪公司开股东大会时，你可以去投票，当比亚迪公司赚了钱，就会拿出钱给股东分红，你就赚取了股息。因此，持有股份的目的是投资一家公司，并且通过长期持有公司股份，在公司盈利时赚取股息和其股价升值的部分。而公司与投资者建立买卖其股份桥梁的地方就是证券市场。

2.那买股票为什么会有风险呢？这个讲起来比较复杂。因为股票价格会随着买卖波动，而投机者又相当疯狂，他们会试图赚取波动的差价。投机者分两部分，一部分叫主力，一部分叫散户，主力就是机构，你买股票型基金，就是把钱交给了主力，散户就是个人投机者。主力和散户和股东的区别是，他们会通过短期的博弈赚取差价，这种短期的博弈实际上是零和的，你挣的就是对方赔的钱，通常都是主力收割散户的。这就是为啥散户基本百分百炒股都赔钱的原因。最近，基金名声很差，说明主力们如今也被收割了。现在A股基本没人不被收割。我们把这些彼此收割的主力和散户称为炒股的人。

3.短期看，股票市场是投机者不断博弈的地方，长期看则不然。当你用你觉得合适的价格买了一家公司的股权后，那家公司只要继续发展，就会不断给股东分红，股票也会不断升值，因此，股市短期看是零和博弈，长期看是正和博弈。只要社会发展，股市的总市值是一定只涨不跌的。当你投资一家公司，长期持有不动，赚取的就不是短期投机的钱了，而是公司自身的价值增长和分红。这部分人，就是长期持有公司股权的股东。

4.投资有风险吗？如果你在彻底了解一家公司后再进行投资，风险是极低的。比如你投资一家公司，该公司的财务状况全部都是公开的，你可以通过其财务状况判断这家公司到底值多少钱（当然，财务有时也可能会造假，不熟悉的公司就不要靠财报瞎买了）。如果每股的价格偏高，你是一定不会去买的。如果偏低，那你买后再跌也无所谓，越跌越加仓，因为价格是围绕价值波动的，偏低的价格，最后一定会涨回去。若你根本不懂这家公司干啥，你就不要投资，一定要投资自己懂的行业。随便买一家均线看着上扬的公司，万一是个皮包公司怎么办？因此，没有人会看均线投资，看均线的都是投机。当你决定投资一家公司时，只要你觉得以这个价格收购这家公司部分股权合适，那买就好了。以合适价格收购自己懂的好公司，未来不挣钱的可能性非常低。

5.那么，既然投资风险很低，那为何股市中，多数人却在投机呢？这是因为人性。大多人都是想挣快钱的，假如投资家好公司，你了解一家公司要下的功夫是很多的，可投资后，来钱又可能是极慢的。抛掉短线投机炒作不谈，真正推动一家公司内在价值增长的，是其经营与发展状况，但实体经济的发展却不是一蹴而就的。

6.中国股市为何跌那么多？实际上跌的很少。国内的股市和房市比起其内在价值，可以说都相当抗跌。之前大多公司，特别是中小盘个股，被疯狂的投机者们炒太高了，可那些公司的实业并没有跟上其股价的上涨速度。股票的价格应该是围绕内在价值上下波动的，可很多中国公司的股票，股价远远高于其内在价值。长期来看，其价格必然最终会回归其内在价值。买股票就像买菜，有些股票是一百元的榴莲，有些是一百元的红薯，你非说红薯跌到了五十，跌太多，让国家救市资金拉起来，国家怎么给你们拉？

7.怎么可以找到值得投资的好公司？一般情况下，如果你没有深入了解过一家公司所处的行业，和该行业中各公司的发展状况，你根本不可能找到那个行业中最适合投资的好公司。这对于普通投资者太难了吧？是的。比较讨巧的办法是，直接投资你最熟悉的行业中的最好公司。比如你熟悉白酒，其中最好的是茅台。假如某天，其市盈率降到了一个非常低的水平，股价被严重低估。你就知道现在可以投资这家公司了。越跌说明越值得买。而你不熟悉的行业，以及价格被严重高估的公司，是不能买的。

8.好公司往往股价比较高，为什么呢？一是因为便宜没好货，好货不便宜。好公司本身就比较值钱。二是因为好公司也可能有被炒高的泡沫。所以，需要你投资前必须要认真看这家公司的年报，了解行业发展前景，确定其是否值得投资。

9.那么。普通人是否要投资股票呢？实际上，很多人即使没买过股票，可能也买过基金。基金是一种更复杂的股票组合、债券组合之类。所以，当你买了基金，就等于间接进行了证券投资。是否要投资一个东西，无论叫基金还是股票，取决于你之前了解了多少，做过多少功课。不了解的东西，千万不要买！人要对自己的行为负责，不要指望他人对你负责。而了解一个行业，需要花的时间是很多的。投资是一门职业，任何职业，都不是短时间就能深入了解的。如果基金公司赔钱，你不要相信你的水平会更高。一般人没有那么多时间了解一个行业。因此，我的建议是，如果你的确没有时间研究清楚一些行业和公司的状况，就不要接触股票。

10.那普通人就只能任由手上的货币贬值了吗？不是的。要不你花一些时间，能够研究清楚一些行业和相关的公司，再去投资，并且长期持有，当其股东。要不有个相对讨巧的方式，就是投资你看好的某个国家的指数基金。一个国家的指数基金里有那个国家最好的那些公司的股票，投资其指数基金，就是投资那个国家的未来，只要该国发展，其股票指数就一定会涨。研究指数基金，对大多数人，比研究个股要容易多了。因为有一些国家的股指，就是回顾过去一百多年，永远创新高的，你定投就行了。判断一个国家是否会倒闭，总比判断一个公司是否会倒闭容易。但也要有能承受短期波动和亏损的心理准备。你要知道两点，一是长期来看，只有股票可以跑赢通胀，房地产价格、黄金、债券、定存，时间线拉长，都一定跑不赢通胀。如果你不能通过股票稳定赚钱，就在稳定赔钱。二是稳定赚钱是极难的，即使买指数基金，你也要知道，任何国家的股票指数，有个几年的回撤也是很正常的。若没有做好相关知识和心理的准备，宁可稳定赔钱，去存银行定存之类，也不要盲目投资。我反对任何投机，要不投资公司，要不投资股指，长期持有不动，千万不要投机！你要问我自己的股票什么时候卖？答案是，假如这公司一直稳定获利，发展好，就永远别卖，让这家公司一直为自己赚钱。自己手上的公司和自己家的房产一样，不要轻易卖，可以留给子孙。但不好的公司，没有前景的公司，那是越早卖了越好。                                                                            

                                                                                                                      --墨萱草堂

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While the rankings will fluctuate, this milestone underscores the importance of few key trading concepts in my journey that I'd like to reflect on and share with you. 

The most critical skill in discretionary trading is, without a doubt, the alpha generation process. In essence, risk should only be taken when you possess insights into future market flows that others do not—a true edge.

Identifying these edges can vary significantly with market conditions—what may be relatively straightforward in one regime can become exceptionally challenging in another.

Edges inevitably decay over time as market participants who create the inefficiencies turnover capital to those who capture them. Eventually, the dollar-weighted average participant adapts, eroding the inefficiency until it ceases to exist.

One must constantly refine and find new sources of edge. Fast iteration cycles result in swift alpha decay, allowing us to witness generations of market evolution/natural selection unfold within remarkably short timeframes.

A simple yet crucial skill in trading is the ability to explain why the market moved as it did today. This involves processing new information, translating it into a fair value, and then comparing that with the market's actual response.

By measuring these discrepancies and discounting sources of uncertainty, you're left with a clearer understanding—and sometimes, an edge.

The most consistent and repeatable edge in markets lies in the ability to process information more effectively than the dollar-weighted average participant in a market.

There are many ways one can beat the market and find edge. 

Some traders leverage extensive information networks, enabling them to interpret a broader range of market movements than others.

Others invest in robust news infrastructure, positioning themselves among the first to receive and react to new data.

Or one can excel simply by having superior intuition and being more precise in evaluating how a given piece of information impacts the market's fair value.

After alpha generation, the second most crucial skill is monetizing the edge, with position sizing playing a pivotal role. There's a natural tendency to size all bets uniformly, but in reality, the edges we encounter can differ vastly, sometimes by several orders of magnitude

These feel obviously uncomfortable at the start, but after looking back through a trading career, a majority of wins come from slam dunk obvious spots where the edge was so much exponentially larger than typical that it could have been sized so much bigger with relative safety.

Conversely, so many trades can be attributed to bets with such a thin edge or so much uncertainty that in retrospect shouldn't have even been taken at all, regardless of the PnL outcome.

In every market cycle, there are generational opportunities that demand maximum conviction—moments where you’re meant to go all-in with your full stack. 

There have been a few of these already that I have been blessed enough to capitalize on this year.

The bittersweet reality of the leverage these markets offer is that it can crown you a king with a single well-timed trade, or reduce you to the slums with one overconfident misstep. There is a fine line between boldness and recklessness that one can never be too sure of.

Sizing is more art than science, refined continuously throughout a trading career.

The intersection of your conviction and your risk tolerance.

The final skill is managing your emotional state—an intensely personal journey unique to each trader. 

Much like edge generation, this aspect of trading demands ongoing iteration and is a lifelong pursuit.

Ed Seykota famously said, "Win or lose, everyone gets what they want from markets. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money."

A common tragedy in these markets is that many people are more driven by the desire to feel something than by a genuine commitment to winning. They get caught up in the allure of excitement of quick riches.

Another common pitfall is the desire to be right rather than the desire to make money. This mindset often leads traders to double down on losing positions and take unnecessary risks, driven by ego.

Whatever deficiencies you have within yourself inevitably find a way to manifest in your trading. In many ways, trading acts as the ultimate form of therapy, relentlessly exposing personal biases, emotional triggers, and areas of weakness.

It forces traders to confront their fears, impatience, overconfidence, and need for control, providing a mirror that reflects not just market performance but personal growth.

The journey to becoming a better trader often parallels the journey to becoming a better, more self-aware individual, making trading not just a financial endeavor, but an exercise in self-improvement.

In summary,

trading, at its core, is a measurement problem.

It all boils down to how well you measure flows, market movements, edge, uncertainty, risk, emotional state relative to your competition.

it's is a fun intellectual game—arguably one of the most engaging and dynamic games to have ever existed.

I am blessed to trade these markets everyday for a living.

Some of the things I've talked about may seem exceedingly obvious but I enjoy talking about things abstractly as you tend to uncover more universal truths. 

I hope it was helpful for those starting out in their trading journey.

                                                                                                                --RobberCapital